great podcast. question - why 13MM of ebitda in 2025? they have done almost $6MM in 1H, yet revenues are set to accelerate in 2H25 per guidance (also per typical seasonality). if gross margins stay at Q2 levels and they hit $49MM of revenue (guidance midpoint), it have a tough time getting 2H ebitda below $12MM on its own. appreciate any thoughts.
Hey Zahir, good question. I can't speak for Jesse at the moment since it's overnight in his time but prior to the refi, estimates were coming in ~$12M so to hit $13M kinda already accounted for that acceleration.
However, after the refi with better terms, we *could* see a slight increase to that $13M in Q4 but personally, I'm not underwriting much for the rest of the FY since Q3 is already done. Looking towards FY'26, I think we'll start to see some meaningful improvement to EBITDA since the company is no longer adding to its debt balance from the PIK.
thanks for the note. i think one of the remaining inefficiencies here is that the company doesn't guide below revenue. And, as you guys discussed on the call, the massive operating leverage is under appreciated.
IF they hit guidance (as you say, if the sales team delivers), that would be $29.5MM of 2H revenue vs $19.5MM 1H revenue. 1H ebitda was $5.7MM. Simple math at 50% contribution, 2H EBITDA could be +$5MM vs 1H. So $10.7MM, bringing the year to 16.4MM. I actually think it could be higher unless they add a ton of opex in 2H. Just trying to find the flaws in my logic and whether i'm missing something. If you or Jesse have any further thoughts, let me know! Thanks!!
great podcast. question - why 13MM of ebitda in 2025? they have done almost $6MM in 1H, yet revenues are set to accelerate in 2H25 per guidance (also per typical seasonality). if gross margins stay at Q2 levels and they hit $49MM of revenue (guidance midpoint), it have a tough time getting 2H ebitda below $12MM on its own. appreciate any thoughts.
Hey Zahir, good question. I can't speak for Jesse at the moment since it's overnight in his time but prior to the refi, estimates were coming in ~$12M so to hit $13M kinda already accounted for that acceleration.
However, after the refi with better terms, we *could* see a slight increase to that $13M in Q4 but personally, I'm not underwriting much for the rest of the FY since Q3 is already done. Looking towards FY'26, I think we'll start to see some meaningful improvement to EBITDA since the company is no longer adding to its debt balance from the PIK.
That is, of course, the sales team delivers.
thanks for the note. i think one of the remaining inefficiencies here is that the company doesn't guide below revenue. And, as you guys discussed on the call, the massive operating leverage is under appreciated.
IF they hit guidance (as you say, if the sales team delivers), that would be $29.5MM of 2H revenue vs $19.5MM 1H revenue. 1H ebitda was $5.7MM. Simple math at 50% contribution, 2H EBITDA could be +$5MM vs 1H. So $10.7MM, bringing the year to 16.4MM. I actually think it could be higher unless they add a ton of opex in 2H. Just trying to find the flaws in my logic and whether i'm missing something. If you or Jesse have any further thoughts, let me know! Thanks!!