Reiterating Short: HIMS CC Data Suggests Growth Massively 'Over-Indexing' Toward GLP-1s
Previous estimates for GLP-1 contribution may have been seriously underestimated
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**Note: This report was updated 2.20.25 to reflect updated credit card commentary.
Preview
Based on BofA commentary out 2.20.25, it appears that HIMS over-reliance on GLP-1s is worse than previously estimated.
Should the company be over-indexing to lower margin GLP-1s, it could have a negative impact on being able to meet managements Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance.
If what the credit card data suggests is true, then HIMS core business has materially decelerated y/y further suggesting issues with core growth outside of GLP-1s.
Recent prime brokerage data also suggests that a significant portion of the shares being shorted have covered over the last few weeks leaving little "fuel" left for a prolonged short squeeze.
Additionally, we go over
Potential outcomes of earnings should various scenarios play out.
How the lawsuit brought on by the OFA is tied into taking Semaglutide off the shortage list (commentary from an FDA lawyer).
How Makary plays into this and having a look at his obvious conflict of interest and the timing associated with his hearing and eventual confirmation.
How recent DOGE purges of government employees hit the FDA over the weekend.
Seperately, we’ve also emailed you another expert call with a former FDA lawyer from CDER who helped write the original compounding guidelines as well as a full transcript with a patent attorney held by BofA last year outlining the issues with compounding after a shortage and their thoughts around the sensitive topic.
To get our full list of research, click here to access our table of contents.
Cheers.
Diving Into the Credit Card Data
As we mentioned before, this article has been updated to reflect the recent BofA commentary and credit card data they highlighted vs our original research which means the CC data portion has been seriously cut down as an FYI.
Earlier in January, BofA sent out a note regarding observed sales and how accounting for deferrals could mean that HIMS misses on Q4 estimates. Based on the Second Measure data that BofA used, it appears that HIMS could beat its Q4 guidance of between $465 million and $470 million and sell-side estimates of $469 million.
However, the concerning data here is that the estimates for net GLP-1 contribution of 26% of sales, which has been circulated for a few months now, are much higher than anticipated. Much higher.