Consumer & Retail Report #11: 9/18 Recap

Summary of the Week in Consumer and Retail

Paul Cerro

Sep 18, 2022

Welcome to our Consumer and Retail recap where we share noteworthy headlines, updates, and insights. Never spam.

Company Announcements

Disney (DIS) looking to add sports wagering app (Bloomberg)
Xponential Fitness (XPOF) and Princess Cruises announce exclusive license agreement (Businesswire)
Disney (DIS) CEO Chapek considering merging company’s Hulu and Disney+ services (Bloomberg)
Peloton (PTON) announces national expansion of its rental program (PR Newswire)
Rent the Runway (RENT) to lay off nearly a quarter of employees (Barron’s)
Starbucks (SBUX) announces partnership with DoorDash (DASH) (Benzinga)
Kohl's (KSS): S&P downgraded Kohl's Corp. to 'BB+' (junk) from 'BBB-' on elevated leverage and declining competitive position (Atom Finance)
Life Time (LTH) completes latest sale-leaseback deal for $200 mln (Club Industry)

Corporate Shakeups

MSG Sports (MSGS) President and CEO Andrew Lustgarten to Step Down (Businesswire)
Better Choice (BTTR) company announces management and board changes (Global Newswire)
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) appoints Jeff Howie to CFO (Street Insider)
Peloton (PTON) announces changes to leadership team (Press Release)
Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) announces organizational changes (PR Newswire)

M&A Updates

Aptiv (APTV) announces definitive agreement to acquire 85% stake in Intercable Automotive Solutions (PR Newswire)
Churchill Downs (CHDN) acquires Ellis Park for $79 mln (Global Newswire)
Mexican department store chain Liverpool buys 9.9% stake in Nordstrom (JWN) (Reuters)

Financing Updates

SmileDirectClub (SDC) files for $400 mln mixed securities shelf offering (Filing)
Yum! Brands (YUM) announces $2 bln stock buyback authorization (Seeking Alpha)
Driven Brands (DRVN) files for share common stock offering by selling shareholders (PR Newswire)
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) prices offering of 4.5 mln shares of common stock at $15.50 per share (Street Insider)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) authorized the repurchase of up to $5 billion of the company's common stock (Businesswire)
Bowlero (BOWL) files for 216,956,397 share common stock offering by selling shareholders (Filing)
Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment (CSSE) files for 7,745,453 share common stock offering by selling shareholders (Filing)

Regulatory Updates

California alleges Amazon (AMZN) stifled price competition in lawsuit (Reuters)

Macro Updates

Fedex (FDX) is sounding the alarm for a global slowdown (Barron’s)
Lithium prices surged to new records as EV-fueled demand pressures supply (Bloomberg)

Steven Van Metre 👑 @MetreSteven

If you think today was fun, wait until QT ramps up to $95b's. That doesn't start until the 15th.

Eddy Elfenbein @EddyElfenbein

The one-year Treasury closed today at 4%. One year ago, it was at 0.07%. Wild.

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.87% & average new home price in the US was $405k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.02% & average new home price is $547k. Result: $28k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 96% increase in monthly payment (from $1,343 to $2,628).

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

You are now witnessing is the biggest bull trap in history built on false hopes. Markets quickly assumed that the Fed would become less hawkish and that inflation peaked. Now, markets are realizing this is a systemic failure. On top of it, we have millions of trapped bulls.

Until next time,

Paul Cerro | Cedar Grove Capital

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Fund Twitter: @cedargrovecm

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