5-Minute Update

Hey everyone, just have a few quick things to update you all on, and it won’t take up much of your time at all.

First things first, our most recent win.

1) NVO Pulls HIMS Partnership

Wanted to just highlight a quick win for us before we get into the point of this post. If you’ve followed our work, you know we’ve been covering HIMS for more than a year and with a bearish, almost investigative journalistic standpoint, since the start of this year.

We successfully called the end of the shortage at the beginning of 2025, and then came back for round two when it memed again. We were surprised NVO partnered with HIMS back in April, but we still shared information about how much HIMS was abusing their partnership and pushing their own personalized GLP-1s.

As early as May 30th, we shared a thread of their flow and how they were deliberately pushing personalized meds, regardless of whether you took them before, and compared it to Ro. We shared on June 16th that they were still actively spending more on their own personalized ads versus Wegovy-branded ads. And then showed on June 17th, the breakdown of Andrew’s comment about having better retention and admitting to how many people he put on a personalized plan.

Thankfully, NVO was taking notice and pulled their partnership with the company, alleging illicit mass compounding with unsafe (allegedly) Chinese-made API and deceptive marketing. The stock dropped 33% that day and brought litigation risk back into play.

We still don’t know if NVO or the FDA will do anything, but Andrew has made it well known that they will continue doing this going forward and have already put personalized GLP-1s front and center on their website and launched new META ads as early as one day after NVO pulled their partnership.

And yesterday, NVO announced a new partnership with Weight Watchers (WGHTQ) to have them connected with NovoCare. Honestly, it's pretty amazing how well/fast HIMS isolated itself from the only active pharma players in GLP-1s and showed other prospective pharma companies that they can't be trusted.

It’s been a hell of a ride, and we thank all those who have supported our work on the name over the last 6 months, and we look forward to continuing to cover this name as it continues navigating the potential legal risk.

2) Cedar Grove Update

As you may or may not know, CGCM is its own money, but many of you have privately messaged me over the last year about taking outside capital. We’re still working on doing that later this year, but in preparation for that move, we need to make sure that this Substack and its research are kosher now and going forward. That means we’ll be cleaning up posts that might be frowned upon by regulators as “marketing”, and we’ll need this URL for the main site.

You might see the URL change soon to reflect the separation between fund and research, but other than that, the work will still be the same.

If you haven’t already, and you’re interested in learning more about becoming an LP, just fill out the form below so I can reach out to you when the time comes.

3) Personal Update

Depending on how long you’ve been following my work (Paul), you’ll know that around May of last year, I let you all know that both my parents were battling cancer in 2023.

They’re both good now, but unfortunately, my sister developed stage 2 breast cancer back in February of this year while pregnant and delayed treatment until after the baby was born. Well, that’s happened, so now we’re all focused on getting her the treatment she needs.

On top of that, there are other personal matters that I’ve been having to deal with, so it’s getting to be a bit much. I’ve prided myself on not just the ideas that I send you but also the thorough diligence that goes into each.

I feel that with so many things pulling me in different directions, I cannot do that at the moment, and I’m certainly not going to be sending half-assed research for the sake of sending you something out of obligation.

I have plenty of names and topics that I’m excited to write and share with you all, but I will not compromise on the quality that I put my name behind.

So, because of that, I’m taking a 30-day break from writing reports (obviously I’m still working though) to focus on the above and the other stuff I have going on, which means I’ll be pausing billing for that long.

What does that mean? Below, I explain, which isn’t complicated.

4) Paused Billing

Substack lets me “pause” billing for however long I want, which means everyone’s plans (if you’re paid) are paused. This affects everyone the same, whether you just paid or are about to renew, and I’ve created a helpful visual for you below before I get a few dozen questions on the matter.

So, whether you’ve just paid or are about to pay, it affects both in the same way. During that time, all paywalled work will still be paywalled, but you’ll have access to it.

Nothing else changes, and when I’m ready to publish again, I’ll turn it back on, and then the new renewal dates will take effect. This way, I don’t feel guilty charging you for research that I’m not able to send, and you won’t get charged until I turn it back on, but also won’t lose the current rate you’re at.

Believe me, I would not do this unless I needed the personal time to just focus on family + my portfolio, so I hope you all understand.

Thank you again for all your support thus far, and I’m looking forward to sending you more work once I’m through with this family stuff.

Until next time,

Paul Cerro | Cedar Grove Capital

Personal Twitter: @paulcerro

Fund Twitter: @cedargrovecm